Developing countries had high expectations of the Uruguay Round of trade talks, and of the Doha Round that followed. Many of them have liberalized their trade regimes in anticipation of those gains, and the speed of that liberalization has often outpaced that of developed countries. After two decades of opening up, however, the developing world is still waiting for the results.

The figures tell the story. World trade has risen rapidly over the past two decades. It was 4.7% in 2003 and is estimated to reach 7% this year, according to UNCTAD. That growth has extended to many developing countries. Most developing nations, however, can boast only a small part of those gains. In particular, the share of the least developed countries (LDCs) in international trade has declined steadily, from 1.7% in 1970 to 0.6% in 2002.

Much of the variation in performance can be attributed to the type of trade in which countries are engaging. High value-added goods and services - particularly when they are skills- and technology-intensive - can increase the gains from trade, as some East Asian economies have so impressively demonstrated. Their poverty fell by 40% in the 1990s, while their per capita GDP tripled over the past two decades, according to the UN Millennium Indicators. At the other end of the scale is commodity production, which is highly vulnerable to price fluctuations and external shocks. Somewhere in the middle lie labour-intensive manufactures which, while frequently competitive, have low value-added and can spur a "race to the bottom".

Some of the biggest gains from trade have been won by countries that have moved into service exports - a move that has also helped them slash poverty. Services now account for about 50% of GDP in developing countries as a whole (vs. 68% in the developed world), and trade in services represents 16% of all their trade and 23% of their share of global services exports, according to an UNCTAD study prepared for the São Paulo conference. Services now generate about half of all jobs in the formal sector.

Once again, however, the LDCs account for an infinitesimal percentage (0.4%) of services exports, far outweighed by their imports (1% of total trade in services). They, and most developing countries in general, are net importers of services.

One way to narrow this gap is to export more services, and here their comparative advantage lies clearly in labour-intensive services, mostly through the temporary movement of natural persons (the so-called "Mode 4" of the General Agreement on Trade in Services).

The movement of natural persons - along with "special and differentiated treatment" of developing countries in trade deals, market access and commodities, among others - is one of the areas on which the success of the Doha Round of trade talks hinges. If Doha succeeds in bringing development onto the world trade agenda, it will contribute to the Millennium Development Goal of achieving "an open, equitable, rule-based, predictable and non-discriminatory multilateral trade and financial system".

Beyond Doha, gains from trade could also come from the recent rise in South-South trade. Although currently accounting for just over 10% of total world trade, it is growing at a phenomenal rate of 11% a year, and now represents some 43% of all developing-country trade. This is what Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has called the "new geography of trade and economics".

"By cultivating development in the world, the multilateral trading system can empower all countries to reap greater benefits", says UNCTAD Secretary-General Rubens Ricupero. "And only by cultivating developing countries&apo; development today will members of that system be able to benefit from their markets tomorrow".